With Gaddafi’s death, capture or flight imminent, it is time to look beyond the rebellion, and forward to the post-Gaddafi future. How will the West react? What will happen in Libya?
If the rebels capture Gaddafi, he cannot be executed or dealt with internally. Gaddafi must be taken to the International Criminal Court. Saif, as he has already been captured, should be handed over as soon as possibly. This should be the only demand of the West, that he is tried for his crimes on an international stage. This, to my mind, is crucial to a country’s development into a modern, progressive, democracy.
We obviously cannot make material demands such as oil supplies. It is enough to have a stable, oil-producing ally. Already, oil prices have fallen by nearly $3 a barrel in expectation of the boost in production following a Western-ally in a stable Libya. We cannot make demands. We must allow Libya to rebuild on its own terms. We must, through the UN (with EU states taking a leading role), offer any support we can, developing a new society must be done on Libyan terms. The revolution was Libyan. So must creating a new Libya.
On that understanding, that the new Libya be created by new Libyans… we have to wonder what the master plan is?
The National Transitional Council, the recognised government by at least 30 other states, and largest organisation in the rebel movement, has released a 37-point interim ‘constitutional declaration’. Under their transitional plan, once Tripoli is stable, they would hold elections for a constitutional assembly within eight months. Then, said assembly would appoint a new interim government and draft a new constitution – this constitution would be subject to a national referendum, similar to in Egypt. Following this, we could hope for direct elections for government would take place within 20 months.
This seems to be a good plan. As long as it works. As long as everyone agrees. The first thing the NTC really needs to do is ensure that they are the dominant force in Libyan politics. Many groups are muttering dissent, and many are acting out of a desire to oppose Gaddafi… not install the NTC. There are huge tribal divides. The NTC needs to monitor all these possible fractures in Libyan society, to lead the country through to free and fair elections, and a new Libya.
Related articles
- Un-Saif Gaddafi – Mermaid Dawn rises… (spinelessliberal.wordpress.com)
- Libya’s rebel government in waiting has proved it can rule the whole country (telegraph.co.uk)
- Libya: where is the Gaddafi family? (guardian.co.uk)
- How would Libya’s next government take shape? | Jane Kinninmont (guardian.co.uk)
Whilst the spark that started the revolution was Libyan, it’s only the intervention of the West which has fanned the flames and actually bought it through to its conclusion; without NATO air-support and the French dropping weapons crates to anyone with a bandana and a bad attitude, I think we can agree Gadaffi would still be sitting pretty in his compound in Tripoli.
Let’s not kid ourselves, NATO does not (as a general rule) launch out-of-area missions in defence of democratic principles; regime-change was always top of the list of NATO objectives in Libya and, though the resolution did not legitimise this per se, it certainly did not rule it out as part of the tactical degradation of Libyan command and control capabilities. By carrying out airstrikes and arming the rebels, NATO has essentially deposed Gaddafi by proxy. Considering the enormous expenditure, I think we can expect a fair bit of ‘Western guidance’ in order to facilitate the development of “a new Libya”. So long as this intereference is subtle, does not involve direct military intervention, and is not at the expense of advice and help from Arab League nations, this will be for the mutual benefit of all involved.
It is vital to get agencies such as the UNHCR, International Red Cross/Crescent, as well as advisors from both Western and Arab League nations on the ground and in contact with the NTC as soon as Tripoli is stable.
In the same way the revolution wouldn’t have succeeded without Western help, similarly the rebuild cannot be undertaken without outside help.
My point was not that we should not aid Libya’s development. It was that it must be done on Libyan terms. We cannot force Libya down a path, or our acts will have been in vain.
Of course regime-change was the primary aim, even if we didn’t explicitly say so, or perhaps act on it ourselves. Gaddafi was bad news for the West.
I totally agree on UNHCR, IFRC and the like getting on the ground and helping the NTC to draft constitutions, free aid, organise themselves etc etc… but the actual involvement of our government and its organs must be limited, so as to avoid cultivating resentment.
What sort of intervention and guidance are we talking about here? There is a drastic difference between the IFRC supplying aid and developing a network in the country, and turning it into a form of puppet state, drawing its natural resources for our advantage,
On your first point, perhaps not entirely correct. The revolutionaries have made it nearly to the gates of Tripoli before, before NATO ever intervened. Admittedly, they failed that time, and would probably have died in Benghazi without Western intervention, but it does show how well they did do when they had momentum. Having said that, Gaddafi may not have withstood any revolutionary assault without the weapons the West has long been selling him… France dropping weapons… and probably supplying them with Jean-Paul Gaultier bandanas at the same time… is, it could be said, just evening the inequalities we permitted.